10 May 2017
Since 2005, the Baltic Sea along with the North Sea and several other areas has been defined as Suplhur Emission Control Area (SECA). From the beginning of year 2015, the SECA area has set stricter limits for the suplhur content of marine fuel. Further, the Sulphur limit of 0,1% has raised a serious concern both among the transportation industry and among the shippers, as it has been considered to cause a significant cost increase in maritime transport.
As a result of the rising direct costs of maritime transport, estimates have been presented that a proportion of the maritime transport in the Baltic Sea would reallocate on other transport modes with increased cost competitiveness. Especially from the point of view of unitized cargo, the threat has been that the modal shift would be from sea to road transport which would, consequently, have negative environmental effects in form of increased CO2 emissions.
Scandria®2Act will approach the problem with a joint study by the University of Turku and Technical University of Denmark. As the first real experiences and data of the effect of stricter Sulphur limits are available, the existing freight flows and the changes in the modal split and route selection along a variety of links within the Baltic Sea Region are analyzed in order to identify the freight flows most sensitive for modal shift.
In the study, both aggregate route level and shipper level data is analyzed to identify the extent of modal shift between sea transport and land based options. The obtained results will be used to estimate the effects of environmental regulations on the transport flows in the Baltic Sea region. The results may be further used to estimate the future Ro-Ro transport flows and the viability of different transport alternatives in the Baltic Sea Region, as well as the environmental impacts of existing and planned environmental regulation of shipping.
The results of the study will benefit numerous stakeholder groups, including policymakers interested in the effects of different policy alternatives, as well as logistics service providers and shippers.
Contact / Further information:
Turku School of Economics at the University of Turku
Technical University of Denmark, Department of Management Engineering